By Jim Mulholland
President-elect Donald Trump campaigned on a promise of deporting millions of “illegal and criminal aliens.” In his telling, the United States has been invaded by murderers, rapists and terrorists bent on doing harm to American citizens. In addition to creating a crime wave, these undocumented immigrants have allegedly stolen “American jobs,” caused a housing shortage and voted illegally. According to Trump, the key to making America great again is the deportation of an estimated 12 million undocumented immigrants.
Unfortunately, while this campaign promise was obviously persuasive, it also ignored basic facts about immigration and the unintended consequences of a policy of mass deportation. Such unintended consequences could have a devastating impact on millions of families in the United States and abroad.
Fact #1
Undocumented immigrants with a criminal background or with criminal convictions after entering the United States represent only about 2-3% of the undocumented immigrant population in the United States. Indeed, according to Texas Department of Public Safety research, undocumented immigrants are 60% less likely to commit a crime than US citizens. There has not been an immigrant crime wave.
Unintended Consequence:
A mass deportation program WILL NOT FOCUS on undocumented criminals because this group is both small and difficult to locate. To reach the ambitious numbers promised by Trump, deportation efforts will need to focus on “low hanging fruit.” This includes the millions of undocumented immigrants who have not committed a crime and who have registered with the US government in some manner. This includes the 530,000 registered Dreamers, the 1.2 million recipients of Temporary Protective Status and 1.7 million individuals awaiting hearings on their request for asylum. In other words, the easiest immigrants to deport are immigrants here legally.
Fact #2
Undocumented immigrants have become an essential part of the US economy. They are estimated to be about 5% of the US workforce and as much as 7-10% of the workforce in key states like Texas, California and Florida. With US unemployment sitting at 4%, there are not enough US citizens – even if they were willing to take these jobs – to replace the undocumented workers who are deported. Millions of undocumented workers are in the United States because our economy needs them, and we have failed to create a legal avenue for their presence.
Unintended Consequence:
Industries such as construction, landscaping, hotel and restaurant service, home health care and agriculture will be devastated if there is a mass deportation of undocumented workers. This will lead to significant price increases for all US citizens and a possible collapse of some of these industries. Some economists believe a mass deportation could result in an immediate economic depression. While the employment of undocumented workers reveals a broken and abusive system, the solution is not to deport essential workers, but to increase the availability of work visas.
Fact #3
Our present flawed immigration system has allowed many undocumented immigrants to spend years in the United States. According to the best estimates, nearly 5 million undocumented immigrants have lived in the US for more than 15 years. They have found jobs, married, bought houses, started businesses, and raised children who are US citizens. There are an estimated 4 million homes with one parent who is undocumented.
Unintended Consequence:
Mass deportation will break up these families, forcing them to decide whether to join a spouse, parent or grandparent in deportation. In addition, those families who remain will lose breadwinners and many will immediately need government assistance to survive, overburdening an already strained societal safety net. Mass deportation is anti-family.
Fact #4
Undocumented immigrants provide a major boost to the economies of their nations of origin through remittances – money sent back in support of their relatives. In El Salvador, 21% of the national GDP is from money sent back to El Salvador, much of it by undocumented immigrants. In Haiti, 37% of the GDP is from remittances. Even in Mexico, 4% of the GDP is from these dollars. In a global economy, the loss of these dollars could lead to a global depression.
Unintended Consequence:
The mass deportation of people to these struggling nations will create social, political and economic chaos in these nations. Many poor families in these nations survive on the remittances they receive from family members in the United States. Ironically, mass deportation could accelerate illegal crossings at the border if these nations are destabilized.
Fact #5
The history of large concentrations and deportations of targeted populations is ugly. In 1954, the US launched “Operation Wetback”, this program deported over one million Mexicans in a single year. The deportations were draconian and barbaric, leading to hundreds of deaths and thousands of complaints of physical and sexual abuse. Eighty-eight detainees died of heat stroke in a single day at one detention center. Many parents were separated from their spouses and children. While we don’t know exact numbers, there is considerable evidence of many US citizens of Mexican descent being caught up in the operation and detained and even deported.
Unintended Consequence:
Mass deportation is always cruel and dehumanizing. During the Trump administration, over 5500 children were separated from their parents with about 2000 still awaiting reunification after 8 years of separation. People were kept in cages and housed in “concentration camps.” There were many complaints of sexual and physical abuse. We can expect these cruelties and deaths to increase under this new regime
Conclusion
The argument that undocumented immigrants are dangerous is bigoted and racist. Mass deportation, while politically popular, will not make our country safer, more prosperous or more just. Rather, mass deportation will negatively impact US and foreign economies, the lives of millions of undocumented men, women and children, their nations of origin, and the families of US citizens. If it leads to an economic depression, it will impact every US citizen negatively.
Building the infrastructure to accomplish the deportations will be ripe for corruption and abuse. Most frightening, the normalization of such a deportation system will erode and even destroy the long held American promise as a “refuge for the oppressed and downtrodden.” Mass deportation will make us an uglier nation and people.
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